What Makes This US Shutdown Distinct (as well as More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature in American political life – but this one feels particularly intractable due to political dynamics along with bad blood among the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on furlough without pay as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp in this instance as both parties – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.
Here are the four ways that make this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Currently the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support together with GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader along with a senior aide have openly indicated of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of reductions in government employment that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts remains unclear, but the White House have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts of the country, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Instead, animosity prevails. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, in which the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and facial hair.
The affected legislator with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled from multiple factors including tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
Conversely, analysts say that if administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.