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Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that his participation in the opening Ashes Test appears unlikely due to ongoing fitness concerns.

Recent reports from Australia had indicated that Cummins might miss the whole series, though the pace bowler himself has now given a more comprehensive update on his condition.

Recovery Process

The 32-year-old has been struggling with a back stress injury that has prevented his participation since his last competitive match in July.

Although Cummins has restarted running exercises, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his rehabilitation program.

"I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but my assessment is probably less likely than likely," commented Cummins. "We get into begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from wearing the spikes and bowling out on turf."

Fitness Requirements

Australia coach Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would need a bare minimum of four weeks of net sessions to have any opportunity of featuring in the first Test, set to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, clarifying: "You'd want at least approximately a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to ensure you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without worry."

Series Implications

Given the compressed timeframe, there are also doubts about Cummins' availability for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unavailable, former captain Steve Smith is expected to captain the side, with Scott Boland potentially stepping in in the pace department.

The hosts have retained the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test win in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current fitness issues mirror challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test first appearance as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the youngest-ever player to take a five-for in an innings at that time.

However, his explosive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins experienced six years before his second Test appearance due to multiple stress fractures in his lower back.

Notable Accomplishments

When healthy, Cummins has established himself as one of cricket's premier fast bowlers. The experienced campaigner has taken 309 Test wickets at an impressive average of 22.10.

His record in home conditions is even more impressive, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and establishing his value to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's victorious World Test Championship final and excelling in their 50-over World Cup final victory against India.

He remains the only captain in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Squad Situation

England also face their own injury concerns with captain Ben Stokes, who has been affected by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the highly anticipated Ashes series approaches.