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This Sunday, the Central African Republic will hold a crucial series of four votes, encompassing the presidential race, parliament, and local offices.

A Crowded Race for the Presidency

Seven candidates are vying for the presidency, among them former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were given approval to stand by the high court after initial bans. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra briefly served under the current president.

Opposition Hopes and Public Discontent

The opposition aims to capitalize on widespread frustration in a nation where conflict remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as exiles in bordering states.

"This represents an chance to acknowledge the significant progress of the country," said a senior UN diplomat, adding that obstacles persist.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is widely expected to extend his run. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, holding the post until a insurgent alliance overthrew the government in 2013, sparking a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent transition period, his reputation for impartiality from the warring factions fueled his second-round victory in 2016.

Security Concerns and Voting Challenges

There are fears that logistical problems and violence could mar the vote, especially in the countryside. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering protection and organizational aid that the state's crumbling infrastructure cannot manage.

Additional problems involve the voter list being published only online, a major hurdle in a nation with limited internet access. These issues have prompted an opposition boycott and could, according to observers, "disenfranchise large segments of the population."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many citizens worry that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 charter change that abolished term limits and lengthened mandates—would entail greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for his protection, and even after its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to fold its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on commercial ventures within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Recent reports have stated the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to make way for a Rwandan livestock operation. A critical editorial charged the leadership of being "determined to dispose of the nation bit by bit."

Amid a recent peace accord with rebel groups offering a glimmer of calm, the election proceeds under a cloud of uncertainty and external competition.